Issue Briefs

The military relationship between Russia and NATO is far less stable than political leaders may assume and poses increasing risks in particular sub-regions. This paper offers a new approach to Conventional Arms Control (CAC), taking into account how a variety of European actors perceive their threat environment and what they worry about most.

The Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty was rightly regarded as one of the most important nuclear disarmament agreements. After the INF treaty's demise in August 2019, the question is how to prevent further deterioration of the security climate and reduce the risk of a new nuclear arms race in Europe.

A picture, it is said, is worth 1,000 words. The image-centric Treaty on Open Skies (Open Skies) embodies that concept perfectly. The trusted pictures shared among all the Parties to the treaty create more certainty than thousands of words ever could. But the treaty is challenged by multiple factors.

The signing of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 1987 marked the end of an eight-year stalemate in nuclear arms control due to the tension between leaders in Moscow and the West. Yet if the compliance disputes raised in recent years are not soon resolved or at least managed, the INF Treaty is likely to fail, ultimately dragging other arms control regimes down with it.

The central limits of the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) took full effect on February 5, and the United States and Russia each reported that it had met those limits. By its terms, New START remains in effect until 2021, though it can be extended by up to five years by agreement by the sides.