Issue Brief: New START Treaty

The central limits of the 2010 New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) took full effect on February 5, and the United States and Russia each reported that it had met those limits. By its terms, New START remains in effect until 2021, though it can be extended by up to five years by agreement by the sides.

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Abstract

The Russian military is midway through a modernization of its strategic offensive forces, while the U.S. military is preparing a strategic modernization program that will accelerate in the 2020s. Thus far, the two modernization programs appear configured to fit within New START’s limits. However, the low state of the broader U.S.-Russia relationship, compliance issues regarding the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, and uncertainties about the commitment of Washington and Moscow to continued nuclear arms control raise questions about New START’s future. While New START will likely last until 2021, its future thereafter is uncertain. There are three possibilities: the treaty lapses; the sides agree, as a minimum step, to extend New START until 2026; or the sides negotiate a new treaty to supplant New START. At a minimum, the United States and Russia should agree to extend New START.

Policy recommendations

Perhaps the best outcome that could be hoped for in the near-term is extension of New START to 2026 with some commitment by Washington and Moscow to begin exploring the issues that they would have to address in a new negotiation. That would maintain New START’s contribution to predictability and stability and give the two countries more time to decide how they might next proceed. The United States and Russia should agree as soon as possible to extend New START until February 2026.

Authors

  • Steven Pifer

    Steven Pifer is a non-resident senior fellow with the Brookings Institution and an affiliate with the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Pifer is a retired foreign service officer with over 25 years of experience with the State Department, where he worked on U.S. relations with the former Soviet Union and Europe, as well as arms control and security issues. He served as deputy assistant secretary of state in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs with responsibilities for Russia and Ukraine (2001-2004), U.S. ambassador to Ukraine (1998-2000), and special assistant to the President and senior director for Russia, Ukraine and Eurasia on the National Security Council (1996-1997).

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  • Daryl G. Kimball

    is the Executive Director of the Arms Control Association (ACA) since 2001, which is a private, non-profit membership organization dedicated to public education and support of effective arms control measures pertaining to nuclear, chemical, biological, and conventional weapons based in Washington DC.

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  • Anatoli S. Diakov

    is a Professor of Physics and a Researcher at the Center for Energy and Security Studies (CE-NESS) and a leading Researcher at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO).