Nuclear Sharing in Europe
| YDCC Report
Europe’s rapidly shifting security landscape has prompted a reevaluation of nuclear sharing policies, extending beyond those among NATO allies to include new dynamics between Russia and Belarus. This report analyzes the various forms that nuclear sharing policies and debates take through evaluating cases across seven countries.
Abstract
Europe’s rapidly shifting security landscape has prompted a reevaluation of nuclear sharing policies, extending beyond those among NATO allies to include new dynamics between Russia and Belarus. This report analyzes the various forms that nuclear sharing policies and debates take through evaluating cases across seven countries. It examines how both domestic and international security dynamics influence the decision-making of current and prospective participants in such arrangements. The case studies highlight three broad trends: First, the diplomatic value of nuclear sharing arrangements outweighs their military utility. Second, the perceived balance of conventional military power significantly influences nuclear sharing decisions. Third, nuclear sharing arrangements are extremely durable once established. Nuclear sharing does not simply “strengthen deterrence", it rather has a harmful effect on arms racing dynamics and crisis stability. Therefore, countries should emphasize the political commitments behind nuclear sharing arrangements rather than fundamentally change their posture.
Policy recommendations
- Countries should emphasize the political aspects of nuclear sharing, which includes intra-alliance consultations on plans, public solidarity commitments and scheduled exercises.
- On the other hand, they should be very careful to make fundamental changes to their nuclear posture. Any discussion that includes benefits of expanding nuclear sharing or sub-strategic warhead numbers should also include these drawbacks:
- Each nuclear warhead imposes financial costs, safety risks and environmental hazards.
- Relocating nuclear weapons and deploying new systems creates incentives for regional and global arms racing dynamics that can cause large, unexpected follow-on costs and a net loss of security.
- The presence of dual-capable systems and nuclear weapons in an active conflict theater impacts crisis stability by increasing chances of misinterpretation and by creating first-strike incentives.
- Nuclear sharing agreements establish long-term diplomatic ties that remain subject to changing political tides. Policymakers must recognize the long-term diplomatic tradeoffs when initiating discussions on nuclear-sharing arrangements.
