New START’s Expiration and the Need for Continued Nuclear Restraint

| Deep Cuts Commission Statement

On 5 February 2026, the New START Treaty expires, leaving the United States and the Russian Federation without a bilateral nuclear arms control agreement for the first time in decades. This joint statement highlights shared concerns about the implications of that expiration and urges continued restraint and renewed strategic stability dialogue.

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Abstract

This joint statement expresses concern that, following the expiration of the U.S.–Russian Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) on 5 February 2026, there will be no bilateral nuclear arms control agreements between the two countries for the first time in decades. It outlines how this could reduce strategic stability and predictability and calls for both sides to continue respecting central limits and to restart bilateral talks on a new strategic stability and arms control framework, covering strategic and sub-strategic systems, intermediate-range systems, missile defenses, and other challenges, and to demonstrate commitment to NPT Article VI ahead of the 2026 Review Conference.

Policy recommendations

Maintain Central Limits
The United States and the Russian Federation should continue observing New START's central quantitative limits post-expiration to preserve predictability and stability.

Resume Bilateral Talks
Washington and Moscow should resume bilateral talks on a new strategic stability and arms control framework at the earliest opportunity.

Broaden Negotiation Scope
Negotiations should address strategic nuclear forces, sub-strategic weapons, intermediate-range systems, missile defenses, and emerging stability challenges.

Reaffirm NPT Commitments
Such actions would signal serious implementation of NPT Article VI obligations before the 2026 Review Conference.