OUT NOW: Deep Cuts Issue Brief #11 on a Fresh Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe

A Little of the Old, a Little of the New: A Fresh Approach to Conventional Arms Control (CAC) in Europe

The ongoing NATO–Russia confrontation has increased the risk of military conflict, particularly in Europe. The military relationship between Russia and NATO is far less stable than political leaders may assume and poses increasing risks in particular sub-regions.

This paper offers a new approach to CAC, taking into account how a variety of European actors perceive their threat environment and what they worry about most. This includes regional force concentrations and options for their reinforcement, LRS capabilities, and naval forces. It focuses on the Baltic and Black Sea subregions as a matter of priority. To show why a new approach to CAC is necessary, this paper first addresses the issues of threat perceptions and how military capabilities can drive conflict and escalation. It then offers solutions by outlining the necessary elements of future CAC agreements and possible negotiation formats. Read the latest Deep Cuts Issue Brief by Commissioners Wolfgang Zellner, Olga Oliker, and Steven Pifer here

REGISTER NOW: Briefing on how to prevent a nuclear arms race in Europe after the demise of the INF Treaty

After the demise of the INF Treaty:
How to prevent a nuclear arms race in Europe

on

September 21, 2020

at

9:00 - 10:00 AM Washington, D.C.
3:00 - 4:00 PM Berlin, Geneva
 4:00 - 5:00 PM Moscow

Please register here and you will receive the Zoom ID and password.

The Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty was one of the most important nuclear arms control agreements. After the INF treaty's demise in August 2019, a key challenge is reducing the risk of a new nuclear arms race in Europe. A verifiable moratorium on the deployment of new nuclear weapons is one proposal being debated.

Pavel Podvig runs his own research project on Russian Nuclear Forces and is a Senior Researcher in the WMD Programme at UNIDIR. He will present the Deep Cuts Issue Brief “Nuclear Weapons in Europe after the INF Treaty” and discuss his recommendations on how to monitor an arrangement on the non-deployment of nuclear weapons in Europe.

Rüdiger Bohn, Deputy Federal Government Commissioner for Disarmament and Arms Control at the German Federal Foreign Office, and Katja Keul, spokeswoman of the Subcommittee on Disarmament for the Green Party in the German Bundestag, will comment on the proposals. Moderated by Oliver Meier, Senior Researcher at the Berlin office of the IFSH.

This briefing will be held under the Chatham House Rule, with plenty of time for Q&A.

Getting Back on Course

Seventy-five years after the horrific atomic attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, we all still live under the existential threat of a catastrophic nuclear war. Although citizen pressure and hard-nosed U.S. diplomacy have yielded agreements that have cut the number of U.S. and Russian nuclear weapons, prevented their proliferation, and banned nuclear testing, there are still far too many nuclear weapons, and the risk of nuclear war is growing. Events and decisions in the coming weeks will determine our nuclear future for years to come. Deep Cuts Commissioner Daryl G. Kimball recommends key elements of an action plan to get the world back on the road toward a world without nuclear weapons here

Tackling Twin Calamities: Climate Change and Nuclear Weapons

NuclearAgePeace organized a webinar to commemorate the International Day Against Nuclear Tests. Deep Cuts Commissioner Alexandra Bell contributed to the event as a speaker. Watch the full webinar here

New edition of the magazine CTBTO Spectrum

Ahead of the 10th Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT RevCon), a special new issue of the magazine CTBTO Spectrum is now published. Spotlighting the essential place of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) within the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament framework in the run-up to the NPT RevCon, it features analytical articles based on interviews with a broad range of experts – many of them members of the CTBTO’s Group of Eminent Persons (GEM). Deep Cuts Commissioner Angela Kane as a member of the GEM also contributed to this volume here

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons and the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty

The pivotal 10th Review Conference for the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) has been rescheduled and will likely begin in January 2021. By that time, enough states may have ratified the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) to trigger its entry into force. Currently, only six more states must ratify to do so. Deep Cuts Commissioner Daryl Kimball, among others, will analyze the relationship between the TPNW and the NPT in a webinar sponsored by the Women's International League for Peace and Freedom and the Arms Control Association. The webinar will take place on August 27, register here

A Major Nuclear Arms Treaty Expires Next Year. What Happens Next?

In 2011, U.S. and Russian leaders signed an updated strategic arms reduction treaty (New START). Unless New START is renewed before February, the two largest nuclear arsenals will be unconstrained for the first time since the height of the Cold War. The impending deadline is a reminder that the possibility of nuclear warfare did not end with the Cold War, nor is North Korea the sole threat. In this podacast, Deep Cuts Commissioner Alexandra Bell is talking about the risks, benefits and costs of maintaining strategic nuclear weaponry here

50 Years of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons

The stakes are high for the 190 member states of the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) at a time of renewed non-proliferation challenges, bleak disarmament prospects, renewed great power competition in a world reeling from a pandemic on top of economic, environmental, and political challenges. Will the NPT community engage in a constructive review and recommitment to this crucial treaty at its Tenth Review Conference? Read the latest article by Deep Cuts Commissioner Laura Kennedy here