A Little of the Old, a Little of the New: A Fresh Approach to Conventional Arms Control (CAC) in Europe
The ongoing NATO–Russia confrontation has increased the risk of military conflict, particularly in Europe. The military relationship between Russia and NATO is far less stable than political leaders may assume and poses increasing risks in particular sub-regions.
This paper offers a new approach to CAC, taking into account how a variety of European actors perceive their threat environment and what they worry about most. This includes regional force concentrations and options for their reinforcement, LRS capabilities, and naval forces. It focuses on the Baltic and Black Sea subregions as a matter of priority. To show why a new approach to CAC is necessary, this paper first addresses the issues of threat perceptions and how military capabilities can drive conflict and escalation. It then offers solutions by outlining the necessary elements of future CAC agreements and possible negotiation formats. Read the latest Deep Cuts Issue Brief by Commissioners Wolfgang Zellner, Olga Oliker, and Steven Pifer here