The 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is under threat, with the United States and Russia exchanging charges of treaty violations. If the treaty unravels, it will open the door to an arms race in ground-launched intermediate-range missiles, which will diminish security in both Europe and Asia. It could also undermine support for other treaties, such as the New START Treaty, and make it difficult to reach agreement on new treaties. Hans Kristensen, Oliver Meier, Victor Mizin and Steven Pifer call on Washington and Moscow to work to preserve the INF Treaty and recognize its utmost benefits. The Third Report of the Deep Cuts Commission already gave key recommendations on how to address the INF Treaty compliance issues. This Special Briefing Paper now gives concrete courses for action describing ways to resolve compliance concerns. Click here...

The growing tensions around the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) of 8 December 1987 continues to complicate the bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington, registering mutual complaints against each other over non-compliance with the document. After very fruitful, productive meetings and events of the Deep Cuts Commission in Washington, D.C. this March, Commissioners Greg Thielmann and Götz Neuneck have been quoted in the Russian PenzaNews on the INF Treaty issuse of the USA and Russia, and how to resolve it through an open dialogue between the two states. The article can be found either in an English version or a Russian version.

End of March, directly after the Carniegie Nuclear Policy Conference, the Deep Cuts Commission held very fruitful meetings and events in Washington, D.C. The Commission was dedicated to introduce, present and discuss the elaborated proposals and recommendations of its last three project cycles, also including the debate about options for and challenges to arms control. It brought together Russian, German and American members of the Deep Cuts Commission and experts of the new political environment as well as experienced analysts dealing with the future arms control agenda and the challenges of common security. Thus, the international dialogue was further strengthened and the Commission had he opportunity to discuss its outcomes in the light of newer political developments, clearly addressing current threats and challenges. A very comprehensive transcript of one of its sessions at the National Press Club on how U.S. and Russian leaders can avoid renewed nuclear tensions can be found on the Arms Control Association's website of the event.
 

       

 

         

 

 

Since 2014, the United States has publicly accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a landmark Cold War nuclear arms control agreement. On February 14, 2017 the New York Times reported that Russia has already deployed a significant number of prohibited missiles. In light of these developments, the new U.S. administration will face the tough decision about whether or not to remain committed to the treaty. In their latest article, Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn and Anna Péczeli recount the history of the INF treaty to then assess Russian and US interests related to the treaty. Moreover, the article develops three possible future scenarios for Russian actions and their impact on, as well as possible responses by, the United States and its NATO allies. Click here...

Deep Cuts Working Paper #9 on INF Treaty Compliance by Deep Cuts Commissioners Greg Thielmann and Andrei Zagorski is out now!

 

The paper assesses the challenges to and opportunities of INF Treaty compliance in the light of newer political developments. It analyzes the current state of treaty compliance with particular view to Russian and US-American perceptions and gives concrete recommondations regarding a sustainable positive development of the INF Treaty. See "Publications" on the top menu bar or click here...

In his new article, Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn questions whether U.S.-Russian relations under Trump might largely stay the same as before, which would make arms control solutions for Europe more urgently needed but at the same time much harder to achieve. The incoming Trump administration inherits a U.S.-Russian relationship marked by disagreement and confrontation in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the wars in Syria and Ukraine, the West’s use of economic sanctions, and reciprocal complaints about interferences in domestic affairs. The arms control dialogue is stagnating, and the risk of conflict, whether by intent or miscalculation, is growing. Click here...

The question of the resilience of arms control and disarmament institutions to different political or other pressures rests mainly on their continued ability to function effectively. The goal of a world free from nuclear weapons is directly related to the issues of international institutions and deterrence. Assuming that it would be possible, first, to move to significantly lower numbers of nuclear weapons and then to zero nuclear weapons, governing institutions would have to be resilient enough to respond in a timely manner and to uphold the bargain. But what factors determine and influence institutional resilience? And what would be the likely role of deterrence? Ulrich Kühn assesses these questions in his new article. Click here ...

In the context of this current fourth phase, the Deep Cuts Commission shall be dedicated to introduce, present and discuss the elaborated proposals and recommendations of the last three cycles of its project with the new US Congressional staff and the incoming US administration. Thus, the dialogue on the future arms control agenda and the challenges of European security shall be further strengthened and presented effectively to a policy audience. Moreover, half a year after the publication of its last report, the Deep Cuts Commission shall have the opportunity to discuss its outcomes in the light of newer political developments, clearly addressing current threats and challenges. The idea is to engage the transition team of the incoming US administration and the new Capitol Hill staff about the situation in Europe within the context of US-Russian relations, including the debate about options for and challenges to arms control. For this purpose, we will hold meetings and give presentations in March 2017 following the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington D.C.