Das Risiko eines nuklearen Wettrüstens in Europa wächst, meint Deep Cuts Commissioner Oliver Meier in diesem SWP Aktuell. "Mit dem Ausbruch der Ukraine-Krise im Frühjahr 2014 ist der Dialog über Fortschritte in der nuklearen Rüstungskontrolle zum Stillstand gekommen. Neu ist, dass Russland und die USA nun auch vorhandene Rüstungskontrollabkommen und -kooperationen vermehrt in Frage stellen. Richtungweisend dürfte die Auseinandersetzung über Vorwürfe Washingtons sein, Moskau verletze den Vertrag über die Abrüstung und das Verbot landgestützter Mittelstreckenwaffen (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, INF-Vertrag)." Click here...

Ulrich Kühn argues, contrary to many analysts, that Russia is continuing to pursue the same status-quo-orientated approach that it has followed since the end of the Cold War: resisting changes to the relative distribution of power by a variety of means. And, that this needs to be taken into account to form an effective strategy for engaging Russia. Click here...

The new Deep Cuts Issue Brief #3 by Deep Cuts Commissioners Oliver Meier, Greg Thielmann and Andrei Zagorski turns to the latest crisis surrounding the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). The authors argue that the trail-blazing accord, which resulted in the destruction of 2,700 U.S. and Russian ground-based, nuclear-tipped missiles of 500-5,500 km ranges in less than three years should not be abandoned lightly. Even though some U.S. experts and politicians have started questioning the treaty due to concerns of Russia cheating, the treaty is still in the national interest of Russia, the United States, and its European allies. Click here …

Am 24.01. erschien im Rahmen der Sendung "Streitkräfte und Strategien" von NDR Info ein Interview mit Ulrich Kühn zu den Ursachen und Auswirkungen des aktuellen Rüstungskontroll-Stillstands. Darin erläuterte Commissioner Kühn die momentane Lage um den New START Vertrag, die Krise des INF-Vertrags und die Auswirkungen von Raketenabwehr und Prompt Global Strike. Mehrfach bezog sich Kühn auf die Arbeit der "Deep Cuts" Kommission und deren 1. Bericht vom April 2014. Click here...

The 'P5' meetings produced a forum for interesting discussions and constructive general documents, but failed to achieve the principal stated goal: engagement of third nuclear weapon states in the process of nuclear arms limitations and reductions. It looks like there is no prospect of reaching this goal in the future for reasons beside the negative political environment, brought by the Ukrainian crisis of 2013-2014. Even in case of political resolution of the current crisis and improved international environment, the 'P5' format does not seem promising for the task assigned to it.

In this new Deep Cuts Working Paper, Russian researcher Alexey Arbatov analyzes the origins and achievements of the 'P5' process, questions the basic assumptions underlying the process, assesses the chances for engaging Britain, France, and China in nuclear reductions, and gives a number of recommendations for enhancing the process. Click here

In his latest comment for the ELN, Commissioner Pifer argues that "The key to a negotiated settlement may well turn on the ability of the European Union and United States to persuade Mr. Putin and the Kremlin that sanctions will stay on until there is a genuine change in Moscow’s approach and Russia becomes part of the solution, not the core of the problem." Click here

In a most recent article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Deep Cuts Commissioner Miasnikov takes on the issue of "Modernization and “zero”: Compatible tendencies?" According to the article, "Most nuclear weapon states, including the United States and Russia, have often declared their commitment to getting rid of nuclear weapons. But no nuclear weapon state will feel ready to abandon its nuclear capabilities unless all other nations do likewise. Nuclear arms are therefore likely to remain in military arsenals for a long time and nuclear weapons will continue to be refurbished. But even if one accepts as inevitable the modernizations of nuclear arsenals, can they be managed in such a way that they don't create obstacles to nuclear arms reductions and to complete disarmament in the long run?" Click here

This new Deep Cuts Issue Brief by Russian researcher Victor Mizin assesses the state of the West-Russian Security Dialogue and the prospects for further nuclear arms control in the near to me-term future. In addition, Mizin suggests a number of possible measures to achieve more stability for the strained relationship. Click here

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