In a most recent article in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Deep Cuts Commissioner Miasnikov takes on the issue of "Modernization and “zero”: Compatible tendencies?" According to the article, "Most nuclear weapon states, including the United States and Russia, have often declared their commitment to getting rid of nuclear weapons. But no nuclear weapon state will feel ready to abandon its nuclear capabilities unless all other nations do likewise. Nuclear arms are therefore likely to remain in military arsenals for a long time and nuclear weapons will continue to be refurbished. But even if one accepts as inevitable the modernizations of nuclear arsenals, can they be managed in such a way that they don't create obstacles to nuclear arms reductions and to complete disarmament in the long run?" Click here

This new Deep Cuts Issue Brief by Russian researcher Victor Mizin assesses the state of the West-Russian Security Dialogue and the prospects for further nuclear arms control in the near to me-term future. In addition, Mizin suggests a number of possible measures to achieve more stability for the strained relationship. Click here

'It has been obvious for decades that advances in strategic ballistic missile defenses can complicate efforts to maintain a balance in strategic offensive forces while reducing overall nuclear arsenals,' says Deep Cuts Commissioner Greg Thielmann is his blog post for the Arms Control Association. According to Thielmann, 'the two Cold War superpowers addressed this problem by negotiating the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 1972, which limited the breadth and scope of ballistic missile defense (BMD) deployments. But U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002 and enthusiastic pursuit of BMD by the United States has again brought the negative impact of missile defense on nuclear arms control efforts to the fore.' Click here

From December 12-13, Deep Cuts Commissioners met for their second workshop in the city of Hamburg. The meeting took place at the facilities of the Hamburg DESY. This time, Commissioners were supported in their deliberations by Friends of the Commission Antje Leendertse, Anya Loukianova, Dingli Shen, Matthew Harries, Bernard Norlain, Michael Schmunk, Laura Rockwood, and Thomas Shea. The two-days discussions focused on the current Ukraine conflict and its consequences for arms control and disarmament efforts, the INF debate, the lagacy of the IAEA's Trilateral Initiative, the upcoming 2015 NPT RevCon, and further multilateral steps in the P5 process.

On the evening of December 12, workshop participants received an invitation by Councillor of State, Pelikahn to the Hamburg Rathaus, followed by an address by former First Mayor of Hamburg, Klaus von Dohnanyi and Member of the German Bundestag, Niels Annen.

At the end of the two days, participants agreed on the elaboration of a second report by the Deep Cuts Commission addressing the current obstacles to nuclear and conventional arms control and disarmament.

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Conventional Arms Control has been in a state of deadlock long before the Ukraine conflict, argues Commissioner Ulrich Kühn. The Ukraine conflict shows an increased need for more military transparency, predictability, and trust. Conventional Arms Control could address these issues; however, since it is plagued by crisis itself it currently cannot fulfill this role. Conventional Arms Control is based on the idea of cooperative security. Cooperative security is based on a defensively-oriented concept which combines questions of morality and power. The U.S. and Russian security policies during the last 20 years did – partially – not live up to this goal. Click here...

From tomorrow on, Deep Cuts Commissioners and Friends of the Commission will meet again in Hamburg for a two-day workshop. The aim is to follow up on the first report of the Commission and to take up the new challenges in the realms of international arms control and security. Special foci will be the INF Treaty and the on-going Ukraine conflict. In the evening of December 12, workshop participants will be invited to a reception at the Hamburg Rathaus where Klaus von Dohnanyi and Nils Annen will address the international guests. The reception is open to the press. For more information and how to register please click here.

This issue brief analyzes Russia’s nuclear posture, meaning the composition of the Russian strategic triad, its non-strategic nuclear arms, and Moscow’s current nuclear doctrine. As part of the modernization process of the Russian Army, Moscow has ordered a significant qualitative overhaul of the Russian nuclear forces in all three legs of the Russian triad. Click here...

On November 20, Deep Cuts Commissioners Acton, Diakov, Esin, Häckel, Kühn, Meier, Miasnikov, Mizin, Neuneck, Oznobischev, Thielmann, and Zagorski met at IMEMO Moscow to discuss the INF Treaty and the further work of the Commission. In addition, IMEMO researchers Tanya Anichkina, Vladimir Dvorkin, and Alexander Saveliev joined the Commissioners to exchange their views.

 

During the two hours meeting, Commissioners focused on the latest mutual compliance allegations pertaining to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) and exchanged the respecitive Russian, American, and European views on the issue. Commissioners agreed that the INF Treaty is still a critical instrument enhancing mutual stability and predictability and that it is of crucial importance to preserve the treaty. Further on, Commissioners debated the agenda of the upcoming Second Workshop of the Deep Cuts Commission to be held in Hamburg from 12-13 December 2014.

Before the IMEMO roundtable, Commissioners Kühn, Meier, Neuneck, and Thielmann had the chance for an intense 1.5 hours exchange of views with the Director of the Department for Non-Proliferation and Arms Control of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Mr. Mikhail Ulyanov at MID. At the meeting, Commissioners expressed their hope for a continued and intensified track 2 dialogue in the Deep Cuts framework in 2015.

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