The election of U.S. President Donald Trump last November confounded Berlin. What, German politicians, policymakers, and journalists wondered, should they make of Trump’s vague or even hostile stances toward the EU and NATO or his apparent embrace of Russia? Some hoped that Trump meant to push NATO members to spend more on defense but would, in the end, leave the long-standing U.S. guarantee of European security intact. Others, less optimistic, argued that the days when Germany could rely on the United States for its defense were over - and that the country must start looking out for itself. In their latest article for Foreign Affairs, Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn, together with Tristan Volpe, argues why Germany should not go nuclear. Click here...

On the occasion of the 1st Preparatory Committee for the 2020 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, the Deep Cuts Commission in cooperation with the German Federal Foreign Office organized a Side Event at the Vienna International Center on Tuesday, May 2, 2017. The panel was chaired by Ambassador Susanne Baumann, the German Deputy Commissioner for Arms Control and Disarmament at the Federal Foreign Office; the three Deep Cuts Commissioners Greg Thielmann (Arms Control Association, Washington D.C.), Victor Mizin (Moscow State Institute of International Relations, Moscow), and Götz Neuneck (Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy, Hamburg) participated as panelists. The panel discussed the future of nuclear arms control in the light of newer political developments such as the INF Treaty, the New START Treaty and Conventional Arms Control in Europe.

 

  

The 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is under threat, with the United States and Russia exchanging charges of treaty violations. If the treaty unravels, it will open the door to an arms race in ground-launched intermediate-range missiles, which will diminish security in both Europe and Asia. It could also undermine support for other treaties, such as the New START Treaty, and make it difficult to reach agreement on new treaties. Hans Kristensen, Oliver Meier, Victor Mizin and Steven Pifer call on Washington and Moscow to work to preserve the INF Treaty and recognize its utmost benefits. The Third Report of the Deep Cuts Commission already gave key recommendations on how to address the INF Treaty compliance issues. This Special Briefing Paper now gives concrete courses for action describing ways to resolve compliance concerns. Click here...

The growing tensions around the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) of 8 December 1987 continues to complicate the bilateral relations between Moscow and Washington, registering mutual complaints against each other over non-compliance with the document. After very fruitful, productive meetings and events of the Deep Cuts Commission in Washington, D.C. this March, Commissioners Greg Thielmann and Götz Neuneck have been quoted in the Russian PenzaNews on the INF Treaty issuse of the USA and Russia, and how to resolve it through an open dialogue between the two states. The article can be found either in an English version or a Russian version.

End of March, directly after the Carniegie Nuclear Policy Conference, the Deep Cuts Commission held very fruitful meetings and events in Washington, D.C. The Commission was dedicated to introduce, present and discuss the elaborated proposals and recommendations of its last three project cycles, also including the debate about options for and challenges to arms control. It brought together Russian, German and American members of the Deep Cuts Commission and experts of the new political environment as well as experienced analysts dealing with the future arms control agenda and the challenges of common security. Thus, the international dialogue was further strengthened and the Commission had he opportunity to discuss its outcomes in the light of newer political developments, clearly addressing current threats and challenges. A very comprehensive transcript of one of its sessions at the National Press Club on how U.S. and Russian leaders can avoid renewed nuclear tensions can be found on the Arms Control Association's website of the event.
 

       

 

         

 

 

Since 2014, the United States has publicly accused Russia of violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a landmark Cold War nuclear arms control agreement. On February 14, 2017 the New York Times reported that Russia has already deployed a significant number of prohibited missiles. In light of these developments, the new U.S. administration will face the tough decision about whether or not to remain committed to the treaty. In their latest article, Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn and Anna Péczeli recount the history of the INF treaty to then assess Russian and US interests related to the treaty. Moreover, the article develops three possible future scenarios for Russian actions and their impact on, as well as possible responses by, the United States and its NATO allies. Click here...

Deep Cuts Working Paper #9 on INF Treaty Compliance by Deep Cuts Commissioners Greg Thielmann and Andrei Zagorski is out now!

 

The paper assesses the challenges to and opportunities of INF Treaty compliance in the light of newer political developments. It analyzes the current state of treaty compliance with particular view to Russian and US-American perceptions and gives concrete recommondations regarding a sustainable positive development of the INF Treaty. See "Publications" on the top menu bar or click here...

In his new article, Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn questions whether U.S.-Russian relations under Trump might largely stay the same as before, which would make arms control solutions for Europe more urgently needed but at the same time much harder to achieve. The incoming Trump administration inherits a U.S.-Russian relationship marked by disagreement and confrontation in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, the wars in Syria and Ukraine, the West’s use of economic sanctions, and reciprocal complaints about interferences in domestic affairs. The arms control dialogue is stagnating, and the risk of conflict, whether by intent or miscalculation, is growing. Click here...

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