Conventional Arms Control in Europe: New Approaches in Challenging Times

A new report outlining new approaches to Conventional Arms Control (CAC) in Europe has just been published by IFSH Hamburg. Contributors include, amongst others, Deep Cuts Commissioners Wolfgang Zellner (Germany) and Andrei Zagorski (Russia). The report is based on an international workshop which took place in Berlin in April 2015 and which sought to encourage international security experts to focus again on future frameworks for a CAC approach. As the report states: "the war in Ukraine has created a new sense of urgency about conventional arms control in Europe." Click here ...

Commentary: With or Without You - Germany and NATO

In his latest analysis for "War On The Rocks", Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn takes on the ambivalent relationship of Germany towards NATO. Against the background of the Ukraine crisis, Germany might face a number of difficult decisions in the future, argues Kühn. Particularly the future nuclear posture of NATO and latest calls by American experts for strengthening U.S. nuclear deterrence commitments in Europe could help to undermine alliance solidarity. Click here ...

Advancing Disarmament Verification

In his latest paper for the EU Non-Proliferation Consortium, Deep Cuts Commissioner Götz Neuneck takes on the issue of nuclear disarmament verification. The paper argues: "A number of scientific-technical activities have been carried out to establish more robust and irreversible disarmament verification schemes. Regardless of the actual path towards deeper reductions in nuclear arsenals or their total elimination in the future, disarmament verification will require new verification procedures and techniques. This paper discusses the information that would be required as a basis for building confidence in disarmament, how it could be principally verified and the role Europe could play." Click here ...

 

Avoiding a New Cold War. Really?

In his most recent blog post for the "Order from Chaos" blog of the Brookings Institution, Deep Cuts Commissioner Steven Pifer argues for a balanced mix of toughness and cooperation with Russia. According to Pifer, "we should not fear negotiating with the Russians, but we also should not cite a Cold War strawman to frighten ourselves into a negotiation or unwise concessions." [...] "Washington and Moscow cannot negotiate over the heads of Ukraine or other Europeans—those countries need to be subjects, not just objects, of the negotiation. Otherwise, we risk an unhappy lot who could frustrate implementation of any arrangement." Click here ...

Analysis of Latest New START Data by Commissioner Thielmann

In his latest blog post for the Arms Control Association, Deep Cuts Commissioner Greg Thielmann analyzes the fresh New START data recently released by the State Department. Thielmann comes to the conclusion that "in the broadest sense, there is no change in the fundamentals underlying nuclear force trends since New START was signed in 2010. Both sides are modernizing their nuclear arsenals, and are hovering around the core treaty limitation on deployed warheads. But the modernization chronologies for the two countries are different. Russia is saddled with the need to catch up from the lean years of the 1990s. The only way it can avoid a dip in deployed warheads is to repeatedly extend the service lives of missiles and submarines, whether or not it makes financial or technical sense." Click here ...

Dealing with Putin's Russia

"Rarely are foreign and security policy challenges characterized by such strong countervailing pressures or outcomes so replete with irony as in the conduct of U.S.-Russian affairs after Moscow’s 2014 military intervention in Ukraine," writes Deep Cuts Commissioner Greg Thielmann in his latest blog post for the Arms Control Association. "As Washington policy-makers and politicians try to settle on new guidelines for the bilateral relationship, they should seek a tough-minded but pragmatic diplomacy, realizing that, without U.S.-Russian negotiations, there will be no significant progress on either nuclear nonproliferation or nuclear disarmament." Click here ...

Deter and Engage - NATO Needs a New Russia Strategy, Argues Commissioner Kuehn

"NATO needs a new strategy towards Russia," says Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kuehn in his latest intervention for the New Perspectives journal. "The current strategy is imbalanced because it over-emphasizes power and risks negatively affecting the European security order. A new strategy should recall the 1967 Harmel Report, which successfully combined the security elements of power, order, and liberal values. Today, such a balanced strategy is again needed. A new Harmel strategy (Harmel 2.0) should, like its predecessor, rely on a combination of deterrence and engagement." Click here ...

New Issue Brief on Cyber Insecurity and Nuclear Stability

The possibility that hackers might break into nuclear command and control facilities, compromise early warning or firing systems, or even cause the launch of nuclear weapons, has become disturbingly real, says Andrew Futter (University of Leicester). While this challenge will impact all nuclear-armed states, it appears particularly acute for the United States and Russia given their large, diverse, and highly alerted nuclear forces. In this new Deep Cuts Issue Brief, Andrew Futter analyzes the dynamics caused by potential cyber insecurity and their impact on arms control and possible future nuclear reductions and offers a number of concrete suggestions on how to address this complex interplay. Click here ...

Iran Nuclear Deal Creates Opportunity for Adapting Missile Defenses

Although there are many challenges ahead for successful implementation of the Iran nuclear deal reached on July 14, it is not too soon to contemplate some of the wider effects of that agreement, writes Commissioner Greg Thielmann in his latest blog post for the Arms Control Association. According to Thielmann, at the top of the list should be the opportunity it affords to make adjustments to the shape of U.S. ballistic missile defense programs, adapting program content to the evolving threat. With an estimated $350 billion price-tag for U.S. nuclear modernization over the next decade and the “acquisition-based strategy [for U.S. missile defenses] unsustainable in the current fiscal environment,” according to the Army and Navy Chiefs’ memorandum to then-Defense Secretary Hagel late last year, there is little doubt of the need to save defense dollars wherever possible and in whatever amount. Click here ...

 

Interviews zu 70 Jahre Hiroshima und Nagasaki

70 Jahre nach den Atombombenabwürfen von Hiroshima und Nagasaki erinnert sich die Welt der Opfer und der schrecklichen humanitären Langzeitfolgen. Aus Anlass des Gedenkens gaben die "Deep Cuts" Kommissionsmitglieder Ulrich Kühn, Oliver Meier und Götz Neuneck eine Reihe von Interviews für die deutschen Medien. Im Gespräch mit Jürgen Deppe für die Sendung NDR Kultur "Journal" ging Ulrich Kühn der Frage nach der Zukunft der nuklearen Abrüstung nach und bewertete den jüngsten Atomdeal mit dem Iran. Für ARTE Info analysierte er den Zustand internationaler Abrüstungsbemühungen - sein Urteil fällt pessimistisch aus. Oliver Meier sah unterdessen noch viel politische Überzeugungsarbeit auf dem Weg zur atomwaffenfreien Welt in seinem Gespräch mit dem Deutschlandfunk. Ebenfalls im Interview mit dem Deutschlandfunk bewertete Götz Neuneck den Abwurf über Hiroshima als grausames "Experiment". Für den Bayerischen Rundfunk analysierte er anschließend die aktuellen Gefahren nuklearer Bewaffnung.

Ulrich Kühn zur Zukunft der multilateralen nuklearen Abrüstung

Hiroshima und Nagasaki: Zwei Namen, die für den Vernichtungsirrsinn des 20. Jahrhunderts stehen. Nach den jüngsten UN-Verhandlungen in New York ist es unwahrscheinlich, dass die Überlebenden eine atomwaffenfreie Welt noch erleben werden. In seinem Artikel für die Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung erläutert Ulrich Kühn, wie es in den kommenden Jahren mit der multilateralen nuklearen Abrüstung weitergehen könnte. Er plädiert für eine dritte Abrüstungsnorm. Click here ...

Meier und Zamirirad zum Iran-Deal

Am 14. Juli 2015 haben die E3/EU+3 und Iran in Wien eine detaillierte Einigung erzielt, die den Weg für eine langfristige Lösung im Konflikt um das iranische Atomprogramm ebnen soll. Der gemeinsame umfassende Aktionsplan (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) enthält auf über 100 Seiten Regeln und einen institutionellen Rahmen zur Begrenzung und Kontrolle des iranischen Atomprogramms. Die Umsetzung wird weitreichende Folgen für die Rolle Irans in der Region, die Sicherheit im Nahen und Mittleren Osten und internationale Bemühungen um die Kontrolle von Atomwaffen haben. Click here ...

Russia's Nuclear Bluster: How Should America Respond?

In his most recent article for The National Interest, assessing the nuclear muscle-flexing of the Kremlin, Deep Cuts Commissioner Greg Thielmann provides good arguments not to overreact to Russian rhetorics in the nuclear realm. "Not since Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev boasted of “producing missiles like sausages” and issued his warning to Western ambassadors that “we will bury you” has the world been subjected to a leader in Moscow so loudly rattling his nuclear saber," argues Thielmann. "With U.S.-Russian relations continuing to deteriorate and worldwide nuclear arsenals still holding some 15,700 warheads and bombs, it is all the more important to deliberate on guidelines for effectively dealing with such conduct." Click here ...

Are Germans Free-Riding on American Security?

A recent poll by the U.S.-based Pew Research Center suggests that Germans are free-riding on the U.S. ability to defend its NATO allies. The poll comes at a critical juncture as NATO allies intensely debate how to respond to Russia’s hybrid warfare, employed so successfully in Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn explains for War On The Rocks that Germany traditionally follows a fundamentally different understanding of security which is much more based on dialogue and mediation than on pure power politics. Click here ...

Some Thoughts About Conventional Arms Control in Europe

"There is no question that conventional arms control in Europe is in a dry and difficult time. That some progress, or better, some resurrection of conventional arms control, needs to happen is equally obvious," says Deep Cuts Commissioner Greg Govan in this most recent Issue Brief. Govan continues to pose a number of fundamental questions: What are the goals for European security? How can arms control objectives serve those goals? How can we work towards those goals within a “Helsinki 2” type process that addresses all aspects of security in Europe, not just the military dimension? Click here ...