+++++++ NEW DEEP CUTS REPORT OUT NOW +++++++

On June 20, the Third Report of the Deep Cuts Commission - 'Back from the Brink: Toward Restraint and Dialogue in Relations between Russia and the West' was released. The report tackles the issues of (1) managing security concerns, particularly in the Baltic area; (2) minimizing the risks of dangerous military incidents and particularly those that could lead to nuclear escalation; (3) strengthening the role of the OSCE as a forum for security dialogue; (4) appropriately addressing INF Treaty compliance concerns and the effects of nuclear-armed cruise missile proliferation; (5) exploring options for a New START follow-on; (6) discussing issues of concern on strategic stability; (7) avoiding misperceptions about U.S. and Russian nuclear modernizations. Click here ...

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Missile defense—Would the Kremlin pitch a deal?

In his latest blog post for The Brookings Institution, Deep Cuts Commissioner Steven Pifer suggests that "The Iran nuclear deal could open a possibility for reconsidering the SM-3 deployment plans. To get there, however, the Kremlin should offer something in the arms control field of interest to Washington and NATO." Click here ...

What’s Missing as NATO Rearms Its Eastern Flank? Diplomacy, says Ulrich Kühn

From a military standpoint, Western planners’ biggest headache is the defense of the Baltic states, located at the edge of NATO territory and hopelessly outnumbered by Russian troops. Indeed, the need to deter Russia will top the agenda when alliance leaders meet next month in Warsaw. But as they contemplate what military means might stop a swift, Crimea-type land grab, they should also review what they know about Moscow’s beliefs and motivations — and choose a path that might defuse, rather than elevate, regional tensions. Click here ...

New Deep Cuts Working Paper by Adam Mount

During the second term of the Obama administration, U.S.-Russia relations have deteriorated to levels not seen since the Cold War. Nevertheles, the United States and Russia should seek a treaty that does not only limit existing strategic forces but also the weapons systems that both countries plan to develop and deploy in the next decade, argues Adam Mount of the Center for American Progress in this new Deep Cuts Working Paper. Click here ...

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Ulrich Kühn zum bevorstehenden NATO-Gipfel

Für die Online-Redaktion der Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung verfasste "Deep Cuts" Kommissionsmitglied Ulrich Kühn einen Meinungsartikel zum bevorstehenden Gipfel der NATO in Warschau. Mit Blick auf Russland und die Sicherheit der baltischen Staaten empfiehlt Kühn eine gesunde Mischung aus Abschreckung und Dialog. Click here ...

U.S. Missile Defenses in Europe: Move the Ball, Not the Goal Posts

"Within the last decade, the United States has made several important adjustments to its plans for deploying missile defenses in Europe," writes Deep Cuts Commissioner Greg Thielmann in his latest blog post for the Arms Control Association. "In light of the ongoing implementation of the Iran nuclear deal and an objective assessment of Iran’s missile program, it is high time to make another one—suspending the deployment of more advanced Aegis missile defense interceptors to Poland." Click here ...

New Deep Cuts Working Paper by Dennis M. Gormley

This new Deep Cuts Working Paper by Dennis M. Gormley addresses the difficult question of how missile defense and conventional precision-guided weapons complicate achieving deep cuts in nuclear weapons - particularly with a view to the strategic relationships to Russia and China and possible further cuts to nuclear weapons arsenals. Click here ...

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The Baltic Dilemma of Power vs. Order, by Commissioner Kühn

"NATO is searching for a way to bring together proponents of power and supporters of order," says Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn in his most recent commentary for The National Interest. According to Kühn, "history suggests that the mix of defense and engagement can be much more productive" [for NATO than a sole concentration on military reassurance]. "An arms control offer, coupled with a deployment threat, is the best way to defend NATO’s frontline states, to deter Russia and to kick-start a dialogue with Moscow which could lead to laying the foundations for a more peaceful West-Russian coexistence." Click here ...

Germany and the Role of Nuclear Weapons, by Commissioner Meier

"Never since the end of the Cold War have the international community and Europe been so deeply divided over the role of nuclear weapons in security policy," writes Deep Cuts Commissioner Oliver Meier in his latest post for SWP. "There is disagreement within the United Nations over whether to begin negotiations on a treaty banning nuclear weapons. At the same time, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Moscow’s associated nuclear threats have triggered a new discussion in NATO about enhancing its nuclear deterrent. Both debates are difficult and uncomfortable for Berlin, because they undermine the incremental arms control approach favoured by Germany. Against the background of the upcoming July 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw and the forthcoming establishment of a working group on nuclear disarmament in Geneva, Berlin must adopt a clear stance on nuclear deterrence if it is to play an active role in shaping the outcome of these discussions." Click here ...

Who needs a new nuclear air-launched cruise missile anyway?

Steven Pifer of the Deep Cuts Commission argues for the U.S. to not purchase a new air-launched cruise missile, known as the LRSO. In his latest blog post for the Brookings Institution, Pifer writes: "The U.S. military is about to embark on a modernization program to sustain the strategic nuclear triad. The program will generate a huge “bow wave” of spending requirements in the 2020s. One big problem: The Pentagon has no idea how to pay for it. The Obama administration and Congress should simplify the issue by shelving the Long-Range Stand-off Weapon (LRSO)." Click here ...

Conventional Arms Control in Europe: New Approaches in Challenging Times

A new report outlining new approaches to Conventional Arms Control (CAC) in Europe has just been published by IFSH Hamburg. Contributors include, amongst others, Deep Cuts Commissioners Wolfgang Zellner (Germany) and Andrei Zagorski (Russia). The report is based on an international workshop which took place in Berlin in April 2015 and which sought to encourage international security experts to focus again on future frameworks for a CAC approach. As the report states: "the war in Ukraine has created a new sense of urgency about conventional arms control in Europe." Click here ...

Commentary: With or Without You - Germany and NATO

In his latest analysis for "War On The Rocks", Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn takes on the ambivalent relationship of Germany towards NATO. Against the background of the Ukraine crisis, Germany might face a number of difficult decisions in the future, argues Kühn. Particularly the future nuclear posture of NATO and latest calls by American experts for strengthening U.S. nuclear deterrence commitments in Europe could help to undermine alliance solidarity. Click here ...

Advancing Disarmament Verification

In his latest paper for the EU Non-Proliferation Consortium, Deep Cuts Commissioner Götz Neuneck takes on the issue of nuclear disarmament verification. The paper argues: "A number of scientific-technical activities have been carried out to establish more robust and irreversible disarmament verification schemes. Regardless of the actual path towards deeper reductions in nuclear arsenals or their total elimination in the future, disarmament verification will require new verification procedures and techniques. This paper discusses the information that would be required as a basis for building confidence in disarmament, how it could be principally verified and the role Europe could play." Click here ...

 

Avoiding a New Cold War. Really?

In his most recent blog post for the "Order from Chaos" blog of the Brookings Institution, Deep Cuts Commissioner Steven Pifer argues for a balanced mix of toughness and cooperation with Russia. According to Pifer, "we should not fear negotiating with the Russians, but we also should not cite a Cold War strawman to frighten ourselves into a negotiation or unwise concessions." [...] "Washington and Moscow cannot negotiate over the heads of Ukraine or other Europeans—those countries need to be subjects, not just objects, of the negotiation. Otherwise, we risk an unhappy lot who could frustrate implementation of any arrangement." Click here ...

Analysis of Latest New START Data by Commissioner Thielmann

In his latest blog post for the Arms Control Association, Deep Cuts Commissioner Greg Thielmann analyzes the fresh New START data recently released by the State Department. Thielmann comes to the conclusion that "in the broadest sense, there is no change in the fundamentals underlying nuclear force trends since New START was signed in 2010. Both sides are modernizing their nuclear arsenals, and are hovering around the core treaty limitation on deployed warheads. But the modernization chronologies for the two countries are different. Russia is saddled with the need to catch up from the lean years of the 1990s. The only way it can avoid a dip in deployed warheads is to repeatedly extend the service lives of missiles and submarines, whether or not it makes financial or technical sense." Click here ...