Fourth phase of the “Challenges to Deep Cuts” Project

In the context of this current fourth phase, the Deep Cuts Commission shall be dedicated to introduce, present and discuss the elaborated proposals and recommendations of the last three cycles of its project with the new US Congressional staff and the incoming US administration. Thus, the dialogue on the future arms control agenda and the challenges of European security shall be further strengthened and presented effectively to a policy audience. Moreover, half a year after the publication of its last report, the Deep Cuts Commission shall have the opportunity to discuss its outcomes in the light of newer political developments, clearly addressing current threats and challenges. The idea is to engage the transition team of the incoming US administration and the new Capitol Hill staff about the situation in Europe within the context of US-Russian relations, including the debate about options for and challenges to arms control. For this purpose, we will hold meetings and give presentations in March 2017 following the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington D.C.

 

Deep Cuts Commission Mourns the Death of Walther Stützle

On August 8, Walther Stützle, long-term Member of the Deep Cuts Commission, died at the age of 74 after a short but severe ailment. Stützle was one of Germany's most valued experts in the field of international foreign and security policy and an outstanding intellectual. Stützle has worked for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation. Since 1969, Stützle held various positions within the Federal Ministry of Defence; amongst other, he chaired the Ministry's Policy Planning Staff. From 1986 to 1991, Stützle led the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) as the Institute's Director. From 1998 to 2002, he was State Secretary of Defence under Minister Rudolf Scharping in the SPD-the Greens coalition of Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. Stützle was a Reserve Lieutenant-Colonel of the Navy and author of various monographs and articles. He worked as a journalist for many years. From 1994 to 1998 he was the editor in chief of the Berliner Tagesspiegel. Germany and the Deep Cuts Commission will very much miss his analytical foresight and his voice of reason. A eulogy can be found at Der Tagesspiegel, Click here ...

New Working Paper on the Baltics Released

With NATO's Warsaw Summit fast approaching, the question of how to reassure NATO's easternmost allies while at the same time not further straining relations with Russia becomes key. Since 2014, particularly the Baltic States and Poland have called on NATO to further strengthen their defensive capabilities against what they perceive as a threatening Russian foreign and security policy. This new Working Paper by Wolfgang Richter proves that sub-regional restraint measures and enhanced transparency in the conventional realm could as well contribute to strengthening the security of all states in the Baltic area. Click here ...

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Rediscovering Diplomacy: An Agenda for Decreasing Tensions between Russia and the West

In his latest blog post for War on the Rocks, Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn referred to the latest Report of the Commission, urging Russia and the West to come back from the brink. "NATO and Russia appear on the brink of a new arms race," Kühn writes. "This is why my colleagues and I  have come up with a number of recommendations in the latest report of the Deep Cuts Commission.Particularly for my Western colleagues, one of the key questions is: How should NATO deal with the challenges described above? The answer is straightforward: Allies must (again) realize that deterrence and arms control can go hand in hand. The coming years will bring both challenges and opportunities for dialogue and restraint. A number of security challenges call for urgent attention — and Washington must lead on most of them." Click here ...

Third Deep Cuts Report Released in Moscow

On June 20, 2016 IFSH Hamburg and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO, RAN), supported by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s Moscow Office held a one-day event under the title of “Restraint and Dialogue: Improving European Security and Arms Control.” This international workshop was attended by some 40 experts from Russia, the United States, and Germany. At the eve of the event, the new Deep Cuts Report "Back from the Brink" was released.

+++++++ NEW DEEP CUTS REPORT OUT NOW +++++++

On June 20, the Third Report of the Deep Cuts Commission - 'Back from the Brink: Toward Restraint and Dialogue in Relations between Russia and the West' was released. The report tackles the issues of (1) managing security concerns, particularly in the Baltic area; (2) minimizing the risks of dangerous military incidents and particularly those that could lead to nuclear escalation; (3) strengthening the role of the OSCE as a forum for security dialogue; (4) appropriately addressing INF Treaty compliance concerns and the effects of nuclear-armed cruise missile proliferation; (5) exploring options for a New START follow-on; (6) discussing issues of concern on strategic stability; (7) avoiding misperceptions about U.S. and Russian nuclear modernizations. Click here ...

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Missile defense—Would the Kremlin pitch a deal?

In his latest blog post for The Brookings Institution, Deep Cuts Commissioner Steven Pifer suggests that "The Iran nuclear deal could open a possibility for reconsidering the SM-3 deployment plans. To get there, however, the Kremlin should offer something in the arms control field of interest to Washington and NATO." Click here ...

What’s Missing as NATO Rearms Its Eastern Flank? Diplomacy, says Ulrich Kühn

From a military standpoint, Western planners’ biggest headache is the defense of the Baltic states, located at the edge of NATO territory and hopelessly outnumbered by Russian troops. Indeed, the need to deter Russia will top the agenda when alliance leaders meet next month in Warsaw. But as they contemplate what military means might stop a swift, Crimea-type land grab, they should also review what they know about Moscow’s beliefs and motivations — and choose a path that might defuse, rather than elevate, regional tensions. Click here ...

New Deep Cuts Working Paper by Adam Mount

During the second term of the Obama administration, U.S.-Russia relations have deteriorated to levels not seen since the Cold War. Nevertheles, the United States and Russia should seek a treaty that does not only limit existing strategic forces but also the weapons systems that both countries plan to develop and deploy in the next decade, argues Adam Mount of the Center for American Progress in this new Deep Cuts Working Paper. Click here ...

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Ulrich Kühn zum bevorstehenden NATO-Gipfel

Für die Online-Redaktion der Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung verfasste "Deep Cuts" Kommissionsmitglied Ulrich Kühn einen Meinungsartikel zum bevorstehenden Gipfel der NATO in Warschau. Mit Blick auf Russland und die Sicherheit der baltischen Staaten empfiehlt Kühn eine gesunde Mischung aus Abschreckung und Dialog. Click here ...

U.S. Missile Defenses in Europe: Move the Ball, Not the Goal Posts

"Within the last decade, the United States has made several important adjustments to its plans for deploying missile defenses in Europe," writes Deep Cuts Commissioner Greg Thielmann in his latest blog post for the Arms Control Association. "In light of the ongoing implementation of the Iran nuclear deal and an objective assessment of Iran’s missile program, it is high time to make another one—suspending the deployment of more advanced Aegis missile defense interceptors to Poland." Click here ...

New Deep Cuts Working Paper by Dennis M. Gormley

This new Deep Cuts Working Paper by Dennis M. Gormley addresses the difficult question of how missile defense and conventional precision-guided weapons complicate achieving deep cuts in nuclear weapons - particularly with a view to the strategic relationships to Russia and China and possible further cuts to nuclear weapons arsenals. Click here ...

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The Baltic Dilemma of Power vs. Order, by Commissioner Kühn

"NATO is searching for a way to bring together proponents of power and supporters of order," says Deep Cuts Commissioner Ulrich Kühn in his most recent commentary for The National Interest. According to Kühn, "history suggests that the mix of defense and engagement can be much more productive" [for NATO than a sole concentration on military reassurance]. "An arms control offer, coupled with a deployment threat, is the best way to defend NATO’s frontline states, to deter Russia and to kick-start a dialogue with Moscow which could lead to laying the foundations for a more peaceful West-Russian coexistence." Click here ...

Germany and the Role of Nuclear Weapons, by Commissioner Meier

"Never since the end of the Cold War have the international community and Europe been so deeply divided over the role of nuclear weapons in security policy," writes Deep Cuts Commissioner Oliver Meier in his latest post for SWP. "There is disagreement within the United Nations over whether to begin negotiations on a treaty banning nuclear weapons. At the same time, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and Moscow’s associated nuclear threats have triggered a new discussion in NATO about enhancing its nuclear deterrent. Both debates are difficult and uncomfortable for Berlin, because they undermine the incremental arms control approach favoured by Germany. Against the background of the upcoming July 2016 NATO summit in Warsaw and the forthcoming establishment of a working group on nuclear disarmament in Geneva, Berlin must adopt a clear stance on nuclear deterrence if it is to play an active role in shaping the outcome of these discussions." Click here ...

Who needs a new nuclear air-launched cruise missile anyway?

Steven Pifer of the Deep Cuts Commission argues for the U.S. to not purchase a new air-launched cruise missile, known as the LRSO. In his latest blog post for the Brookings Institution, Pifer writes: "The U.S. military is about to embark on a modernization program to sustain the strategic nuclear triad. The program will generate a huge “bow wave” of spending requirements in the 2020s. One big problem: The Pentagon has no idea how to pay for it. The Obama administration and Congress should simplify the issue by shelving the Long-Range Stand-off Weapon (LRSO)." Click here ...